For the first time since 2008 general elections PAS and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) may not be celebrating their victory in a by-election even though they have won the seat. In fact it will take weeks or even months for them to recover from their shock.

From  a majority of 1,352 votes achieved in 2008 general elections, PAS was only able to retain the Manik Urai state seat in Kelantan with a reduced,  razor thin majority of only 65 votes.

So want went wrong?

Tide turning in favour of BN?

Manik Urai may go down in history not  only as the constituency which witnessed highest percentage of voter turnout in the country but also as the first by-election since 2008 general elections which turned the tide in favour of Barisan Nasional(BN).

BN is finally breathing some fresh air after a series of defeats which had even posed questions such as - is BN and its component parties relevant anymore?

Reducing so much majority in a Malay heartland and that too in the state of Kelantan which had been under the tight-control of PAS for the past 19 years speaks volumes in favour of BN.

Finally Najib-Muhyideen team is making some head way and the time has come for Pakatan not to rest on its laurels but to wake up and seriously review and  re-assess their policies and approaches.

A timely announcement on teaching of Maths and Science in Bahasa Malaysia could have been  the key reason for BN to pull so many votes from Malays. Najib’s 11 people-friendly announcements and Muhyideen’s soft approaches and campaigns could the other attractive factors.

A defeat for PAS and not for Pakatan

PAS had made a series of blunders prior to Manik Urai by election which had clearly affected their performances.

Both the party President and Deputy President of PAS showing so much of keen interest in unity talks with UMNO may have been one of the blunders that could have driven away the voters.

If PAS itself is prepared to join hands with UMNO then why should the voters especially the Malays should stay with PAS? They also might as well support and join with UMNO and that is what they did in Manik Urai.

Supporting unity talks with UMNO just days before the beginning of the Manik Urai campaign was not a good strategy for  PAS. There was no clear cut “NO” from Hadi Awang and Nasharuddin as what was echoed by Tok Guru Nik Aziz or other Pakatan leaders such as Anwar Ibrahim or Lim Kit Siang.

So the confusion will go on for some time whether the message from Manik Urai voters is in favour of unity talks or against the unity talks. The signals seem to be mixed!

Although the reduced majority of votes in Manik Urai looks more like something attributable to PAS and not Pakatan as a whole, the Pakatan coalition  is also equally to be blamed.

Wake-up call for Pakatan

The most important element missing now from Pakatan is unity. Every party seems to be pulling the coalition in their own direction which seems to be causing a tear in their bond.

DAP’s withdrawal from Kedah, Penang DAP’s way of handling certain issues like Kampong Buah Pala, PAS-UMNO unity talks, frequent confrontations between DAP and PAS, the current tussle between PKR and DAP in Selangor – all seems to suggest that the unity of the opposition parties which was the core selling-point of Pakatan in the 2008 general elections is conspicuously missing now.

The veteran political leaders of  Pakatan need no advice or a set of guidelines as what to do next. They know best.

If they don’t buck up now especially with Sarawak State assembly elections around the corner, it might be too late for them.

A victory for BN in the Sarawak elections, whatever the majority, may prompt them to call for a snap General elections to test the popularity of Najib-Muhyideen’s government.

By stretching their term of office until 2012 or 2013 BN will not allow time for Pakatan to correct their mistakes and build up their arsenals to prepare and take on BN in the “mother of all elections battles” – the 13th general elections!

With the present squabbles and lack of unity within Pakatan,  it might not be easy for Pakatan to improve their performances in the future elections or even at least  to repeat their successes they achieved in the last general elections.

The recent entry of former Law Minister Dato Zaid Ibrahim into Pakatan Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) is definitely a boost for the image and popularity of the party.

For the last one year or so Zaid Ibrahim had always been in the news for some reasons. Even before the general elections he was noted for his lone and open voice in UMNO on so many issues which affected the Malaysian community. On some occasions he earned the wrath of party leadership and was censured. However, his continued defiant stand on some important issues made him noticeable among the masses.

Therefore, it came as no surprise when he was dropped as an UMNO candidate for the Kota Baru parliament seat in Kelantan at the last general elections. Even if he had contested whether he could  have won as a BN candidate against the political tsunami is another matter altogether.

Appointed Minister of Law

After the general elections then Prime Minister  Abdullah Badawi probably realized the importance of keeping a person like Zaid beside him and made him a Senator and a full cabinet Minister for Law, an appointment befitting the legal background of Zaid.

In his cabinet position Zaid hit the headlines again by getting the cabinet approval to pay ex-gratia payments  for the Judges who were removed during the infamous  Judicial crisis in 1988.

Zaid continued with his transparent attitude as a cabinet minister which on so many occasions irked the UMNO leadership. For example, when celebrating a Kenduri  (Thanks giving feast) for his appointment as Minister  in his Kota Baru house,  he invited Tok Guru Nik Aziz of PAS.

His stay as Cabinet Minister was short lived. Again he hit the news when he was expelled from UMNO for courting the opposition.

Since then the news media had been busy predicting about his next political moves as he appeared in many of the opposition ceramahs during the by-elections.  The opposition parties including PAS and DAP were keen on recruiting him. However, as expected he finally made the decision to join PKR.

Next Deputy President of PKR?

With his entry into PKR Zaid Ibrahim is clearly set for bigger things in opposition politics. From now onwards he may shift his political base from Kelantan to probably Wilayah Persekutuan or Selangor where his multi-racial outlook is more popular and acceptable.

Within PKR, Anwar Ibrahim is also under pressure to identify potential second echelon leaders who could lead the party in the future in his absence. Although his family members like Nurul Izzah would definitely play a key role in the party’s hierarchy at the right time in future, bringing her into the forefront at this point of time would also raise the allegations of nepotism as PKR would be seen as Anwar’s family party, an issue which would become a prime target of attack from UMNO.

Furthermore, PKR’s current deputy President Dr Syed Husin Ali is past 70 years of age and has not been playing an active role in the party’s activities. Therefore,  PKR party cadres had always been on the lookout for the right Deputy President to assist Anwar in the party’s struggle. One of the names often mentioned was Azmin Ali, the MP for Gombak. However, he is still young and is seen as too close with Anwar.

However, with the entry of Zaid Ibrahim it is certain that Zaid would be required by the party’s leadership to play a more prominent role in the party’s activities. His “neutral” face, his stature in Malaysian public and his political thinking fits him as the most suitable candidate as the next deputy President of PKR.

Many are also surprised as to why UMNO leadership is also receiving PAS’ proposals of unity talk and unity government with open arms and with such enthusiasm. Since the suggestion was made by Hadi Awang almost all the key leaders of UMNO had something positive to say about the unity between UMNO and PAS.

So why is UMNO so interested in courting PAS despite the age-old political rivalry and mistrust  between the two?

Reasons for UMNO to court PAS….

First reason is that as long as Pakatan Rakyat remains in its present form and content it would be almost difficult for UMNO and BN to survive in the next general elections. So they have to break-up Pakatan and in this context naturally they cannot join with DAP and joining with Anwar will be a loss of face for UMNO.  Their only option is to break PAS away from Pakatan or at least create a confusion or misunderstanding among the Pakatan coalition members by encouraging unity talks with PAS.

The next reason is that UMNO has to devise a new strategy to face Pakatan in the next general election and their only way to survive in the next general election seems to be bringing PAS into the BN coalition.

Divided Malay support…

The Malay voters are now divided into three distinct groups of  UMNO, PAS and Keadilan. Conservatively,  assuming that  each party is enjoying one-third of the Malay community’s support, it can be seen that two of the parties are in Pakatan suggesting that two-thirds of the Malay support is with Pakatan.

So UMNO must break PAS away from the Pakatan to neutralise the Malay support and if UMNO can achieve that impossible task, they would have dashed the hopes of Anwar Ibrahim in forming the next federal government.

In such an event although PAS would be the ultimate loser which will end up losing their non-Malay votes and many of their present constituencies, they may still be able to retain some parliament  seats in Kelantan, Trengganu and Kedah thus providing the edge to UMNO and BN to form the next federal government.

With so much controversies surrounding Najib Tun Razak and with the problems in Perak it will be even more tougher for UMNO and BN to retain their parliamentary majority in the next general elections.

The Sarawak state-assembly elections expected in a year or two before the general elections will be also a key factor in the next general elections.

So the only option for UMNO is to continue to send love-messages to PAS just to create confusion and uncertainty in the Pakatan camp.

So will PAS fall for UMNO’s trap?

As stated earlier PAS with its vast experience on Malay politics and with their political acumen will make good opportunity of UMNO’s invitation to extract additional benefits and advantages from Pakatan.

PAS is not such an easy prey and knowing the dangers of joining UMNO,  PAS will not commit a political suicide!

The Bukit Selambau by-election may go down in history as the by-election that caused a rift among the leaders of the banned Hindraf movement which has remained united since their organised street rally on 25 November 2007, except for some minor misunderstandings. This by-election also damaged the long standing cordial relationship between the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) Coalition and Hindraf which is now identified as Makkal Sakthi.

Why the unhappiness in Makkal Sakthi?

Since the announcement of the by-election in Bukit Selambau caused by the resignation of V.Arumugam, the Makkal Sakthi movement headed by its coordinator  R.S.Thanenthran from Penang, began to stake a claim on the seat.

Makkal Sakthi felt that they were crucially responsible for PR’s historic victory during 2008 general election and that their contributions have not so far been properly recognized or rewarded by the PR coalition.

Makkal Sakthi movement’s leaders also felt that Indians from PR’s coalition parties who won their respective seats with the help of Hindraf are now in comfort zone and financially stable with their government positions whereas the Makkal Sakthi leaders are still running around  with their own pocket money and meager donations raised from public. There have been also some unhappiness among some Makkal Sakthi coordinators that some of the elected Indian leaders from PR were ignoring the role of Makkal Sakthi.

So, it was speculated that Makkal Sakthi leaders like Thanenthran strongly felt, it is only fair that one of them should get into a state government position under PKR so that they would be able to take Makkal Sakthi  into greater heights while helping the movement’s on-going struggle. When Bukit Selambau by-election was announced these Makkal Sakthi leaders decided that this is the right seat for one of them to contest as it comes with an EXCO position in the Kedah State government.

Disagreement over choice of candidate

And there began the problems. Instead of explaining their stand privately to Anwar Ibrahim or other PR leaders, Makkal Sakthi coordinator R.S.Thanenthran began issuing press statements in Tamil newspapers that one of the Hindraf leaders should be given the seat and soon it became an open secret  that Thanenthran himself was interested in contesting the Bukit Selambau seat.

Finally when Manikumar was selected by PKR, Thenenthran even issued an ultimatum to Anwar Ibrahim to change the candidate within 24 hours.

Observers believe that Thanenthran should not have made such a hasty statement against Anwar without realizing the consequences and political reality. With many issues still bogging them down (ISA detention of 5 Hindraf leaders; Hindraf’s ban and Waythamoorthy’s return to Malaysia) Makkal Sakthi leaders should have realized that their decision to get positions in PR’s state governments, although justified,  should not be done at the expense of breaking their relationship with PR leaders. A political affiliation with PR is more crucial and beneficial to them rather than a mere government position in their crusade against the BN government.

The Makkal Sakthi movement in Kedah initially followed Thanenthran and did not participate in the early days of the campaigns in Bukit Selambau. However,  some local Makkal Sakthi  leaders from Kedah felt that they should put their differences aside and instead work for the victory of Manikumar as that would be a more rational decision. So some of the Makkal Sakti leaders took their own positions and worked for PKR.

Thanenthran’s non-participation

When it was announced that Thanenthran has been admitted in a hospital in Penang complaining of health problems many believed that Thanenthran is only avoiding the Bukit Selambau campaigns. He may have also thought that by the non-participation of Makkal Sakthi, PKR would suffer set-backs in Bukit Selambau.

Some Makkal Sakthi sources said that Thanenthran should have come out openly in support of the PKR candidate which would have catapulted his leadership into greater heights and would have earned respect and accolades from PR leaders. Instead he made a statement from his hospital bed that Makkal Sakthi  supports whichever party that works in the best interests of Indian community. Such a non-committal and evading statement made matters worse and even angered Indians supporting Pakatan Rakyat.

However the final straw came when MIC President Dato Seri Samy Vellu visited Thanenthran in Hospital. Immediately after that visit although Thanenthran made a statement that he will not sell himself to anybody and would remain with Makkal Sakthi, his commitment became questionable among Makkal Sakthi supporters in the light of his non-participation coupled with a visit by Samy Vellu. Sms messages were flying with some damaging remarks about Thanenthran.

Makkal Sakthi sources feel that whatever the motives of Thanenthran were, he did many things without realizing the political consequences in the awake of the two key “Bukit” by-elections. Realising that PR is going to win both Bukits with or without Makkal Sakthi’s support, due to a host of other factors, Thanenthran should have come out openly in support of PR. He should have known that if PR wins both the by-elections without Makkal Sakthi’s involvement then Makkal Sakthi’s relevance could become questionable in future.

Waythamoorthy’s interference to put things right

However, realizing the gravity of the situation, self-exiled Hindraf leader Waythamoorthy from London made a timely press release that Hindraf fully backs the PKR candidate Manikumar. The fact that his statement was issued after the release of the two Hindraf ISA detainees made it clear that the Hindraf or Makkal Sakthi were not swayed by the BN government’s gestures.

Sources said that Waythamoorthy even telephoned key Makkal Sakthi leaders in Kedah urging them to work for PKR and its candidate Manikumar, The Kedah Makkal Sakthi Chairman Ramu came out openly to support Manikumar and even spoke at ceramahs declaring that Makkal Sakthi is supporting PR and its candidates.

Thanenthran’s future role?

Although everything looks calm now in Makkal Sakthi after the by-elections, it is believed that a leadership tussle is brewing among the second echelon leaders in Makkal Sakthi.

With Thanenthran’s non-participation in Bukit Selambau coupled with Samy Vellu visiting him in hospital, Makkal Sakthi sources said that it might become difficult for him to continue to be the coordinator of the movement. Suddenly there seems to be an uprising against him and opposition to his role and leadership in Makkal Sakthi seems to be growing.

With only two of the Hindraf’s  ISA detainees released and the other three still languishing in prison, the relationship, trust  and coordination among the 5 ISA detainees is also expected to be broken.

Therefore, in conclusion the Bukit Selambau by-election will go down in history as the one incident that broke the leadership ranks of Makkal Sakthi movement.

Of course now everyone will say that they knew Khairy would be the ultimate winner. However, I had my own reasons why eventually Khairy could win and I wanted to list them after his victory if at all it happens.

Now I state the reasons from my point of view since Khairy has emerged as the clear winner with 304 votes, a comfortable 50 votes more than his next opponent Mohd Khir Toyo who secured 254, and Mukhriz’s 232.

Reason 1: A rare find among budding UMNO politicians

Since the emergence of young and energetic Anwar Ibrahim in the 1970’s UMNO never had a chance of seeing another young and vibrant leader with credentials equivalent to that of Khairy. Those credentials have been repeated many times and therefore the readers would know what they are without being mentioned.

UMNO Youth could have found another Khir Toyo or Mukhriz among them now or in future but it would be rare to find another one like Khairy and they didn’t want to miss a that chance this time.

UMNO in the last 30 years always had leaders who were products of nepotism or leaders who were hand-picked and nurtured. Khairy emerged from nowhere and steadily began his climb even without any government positions. He became PM’s son-in-law only later and it must be remembered that he was already serving as Abdullah Badawi’s Secretary on his own merits.

Comparatively, Mukhriz and Khir Toyo were seen as not that dynamic or energetic as Khairy and they also could not articulate  that well.

However it is still surprising how Khir Toyo could get more votes  than Mukhriz.

Reason 2: To arrest Dr Mahathir’s growing influence in UMNO

Since the ascension of Najib Tun Razak as President, Dr Mahathir’s re-emergence and influence in the party was becoming quite clear and visible. Dr Mahathir succeeded in ousting Badawi and supported Najib and Muhyideen the successors and finally when Mukhriz came in to contest UMNO Youth I think the UMNO youth may have decided that too much influence should not be accorded to Dr Mahathir in the party and that is why even Khir Toyo fared better than Mukhriz.

It is also quite clear that the young generation is not in favour of Mahathir’s style of governance and ideas unlike the older generation who had the benefit of growing up during Mahathir’s reign where they could see the economic progress and development in the country.

Reason 3: His tenure as Deputy Youth Leader could have given the added advantage.

Khairy had the real opportunity of working with the grassroots and rank and file of UMNO Youth for the last 3 to 4 years as Deputy Youth leader and that would have given him an edge over the other contestants.

His personal acquaintance and working relationship with the UMNO Youth delegates in the past may have given him a better advantage than the others.

Reason 4: Helping the UMNO Youth through his “4th Floor” position

Whatever said and done Khairy as the powerful and controversial controller of 4th floor of PM’s office and as the son-in-law of Abdullah Badawi would have been in a better position to dish out some business contracts, links and hand outs to the UMNO Youth delegates in the past.

That gratitude might have been translated into votes in this election.

Reason 5: Sympathy votes for the outgoing PM and President Abdullah Badawi

There is no doubt that Abdullah Badawi still enjoys some sympathy and support in UMNO circles and some delegates may have wanted to console him by giving a victory to Khairy.

Najib and Hishamuddin are children of former leaders. Mukhriz was already there as MP. So the delegates would have thought that Badawi too should leave a legacy in UMNO in the form of Khairy.

The Youth delegates would have also thought that if Khairy loses he may be sidelined in UMNO by the powerful anti-Badawi forces and those aligned to Najib, in the absence of Abdullah Badawi.

Furthermore, due to the recent developments in the party (e.g. restraining Ali Rustam; taking action on Badawi loyalists like Azalina and Mohd Norza; UMNO’s future leadership moving closer to Dr Mahathir) Abdullah Badawi’s own supporters and loyalists would have worked extra hard to ensure that Khairy win as Youth Leader and so in him they may wanted to retain some form of legacy from Abdullah Badawi.

Reason 6: To act as a check and balance on Najib’s leadership

Removing Ali Rustam from the Deputy Presidential race definitely caused lot of sympathies for him among the UMNO Youth. Ali Rustam was a former leader of 4-B movement and a sizable chunk of UMNO Youth delegates come from 4-B Youth Movement. Those sympathies could have been translated into votes for Khairy.

Furthermore, with the removal of Ali Rustam from the race, UMNO Youth would have thought that Najib might become too powerful in the party with the emergence of Tan Sri Muhyideen as Deputy President and Mukhriz as Youth leader and therefore there must be a check and balance for Najib.

There must be someone from Abdullah Badawi’s camp to assume the “check and balance” role on Najib and so the delegates would have thought that the best person would be Khairy!

Reason 7: Lesser number of Nominations would have given him the spirit and drive to work even harder

Even though Khairy was the current Deputy Youth Leader and seen as the clear favorite initially, the rate at which Mukhriz was getting more nominations, would have given a jolt and wake-up call to Khairy to re-strategise his campaigns and to work even harder by going to the ground.

Whereas, the bigger number of nominations would have a given a kind of complacency to Mukhriz eventually slowing down his pace of campaigning.

Reason 8: Splitting of votes due to presence of 3 candidates

Finally it must be remembered that although there could many more reasons why Khairy won, there were a total of 486 votes against Khairy compared to the 304 votes he secured which means the majority of the UMNO Youth delegates are still against him.

Khairy’s two opponents together secured 182 votes more than Khairy’s 304 which is also astonishing.

Therefore, it only points to the fact that one of the main reasons for Khairy’s victory was the splitting of votes between Mukhriz and Khir Toyo.

If there had been only one candidate against him whether Khairy could have still won is very doubtful.

In this context it must be also pointed out that in the race for Deputy Youth Leader, Datuk Reezal Merican, who is closely aligned to the outgoing PM Abdullah Badawi,  lost. He comes from Kapala Batas, the same division of Abdullah Badawi and was also a Political Secretary to Abdullah Badawi.

With all those credentials he was defeated by Razali Ibrahim, a lawyer by  profession, MP for Muar and also a former Private Secretary to the outgoing Youth Chief Hishamuddin when he was the Youth and Sports Minister.

Therefore, it is debatable whether Khairy could have still made it in a one-to-one contest.

Whatever said, let us congratulate him for his resounding victory and for making it as the youngest UMNO Youth leader at the age of 33.

Is UMNO Youth results an indicator for UMNO elections?

Based on the UMNO Youth results and other factors I would predict the following in today’s UMNO elections:

Ø  Tan Sri Muhyideen will lose and Tan Sri Mohd Taib may win as the Deputy President;

Ø  Datuk Seri Hishamudin will lose in his Vice Presidential bid

Ø  Three from the following 4 would win as Vice-Presidents:

(i)     Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid (likely No: 1)

(ii)    Tan Sri Mohd Isa

(iii)    Datuk Seri Mohd Khaled Nordin

(iv)   Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal

Let us see whether I can pat on my shoulders tonight or scramble for answers why my predictions failed!